Skip to main content
ParlayLab

EV Breakdown

The same slip, taken apart.

Three views on one 3-leg parlay. Plain bars. Numbers in mono. Nothing hidden.

Specimen 01

Combined odds

+595

True prob

18.6%

Implied prob

14.5%

Edge

+28.2%

EV / $100

+$28.00

Kelly stake

4.7%

Per-leg implied probability

3 legs

How likely the market thinks each leg is.

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Chiefs -3.5 52.4% Cel/Hea O 218.5 47.6% Ohtani 1+ HR 58.3%

Payout distribution

$100 stake

Two outcomes. One is rare. One is common.

$0 $200 $400 $600 $0 Any leg loses 85.5% likely $695 All 3 hit 14.5% likely

Expected return

$128.00

Net EV

+$28.00

Fair price vs. market price

Market Fair

Side-by-side per leg. A wider violet bar means you think the leg is more likely than the book.

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Chiefs -3.5 52.4% 54.0% Cel/Hea O 218.5 47.6% 51.2% Ohtani 1+ HR 58.3% 60.5%

Reading this slip

The market prices this parlay at +595 (14.5% implied). Our fair line prices it at +439 (18.6% true). That gap is a +28.2% edge — an expected return of $128 on a $100 stake — and a Kelly recommendation to risk roughly 4.7% of bankroll, not a third of it.